How many points Arsenal need to win top-four battle as Pep Guardiola sets Premier League target

Latest Arsenal news takes a closer look at how many Premier League points the Gunners may need to win the top-four battle against West Ham, Man United and Tottenham

It’s that stage of the season where Arsenal and every other Premier League team know roughly how many points it could take to achieve their targets.

For those battling for survival at the bottom of the table, it’s often noted that reaching the magical 40 points mark should be enough to ensure any team retains their status in the top-flight of English football.

Meanwhile, Manchester City boss Pep Guardiolahas predicted over 90 points is the target for his side to retain the Premier League title this season.

Although, 87 points will be enough for Arsenal to win the top-four battle ahead of West Ham United, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

This is because the Hammers – who currently occupy the final Champions League qualification spot – can only reach 80 following their 2-2 draw against Leicester City on Sunday afternoon.

And as Arsenal have three games in hand over their rivals from east London they will be firmly in the driving seat to claim the coveted fourth spot if they take maximum points from those fixtures.

Of course, it should be noted that as there are games between the top-four rivals still to be played, only one side – as unlikely as it is- has a chance of ending the season with a perfect winning record.

As a result, a points total lower than 87 should be enough for Champions League qualification.

Since Arsenal last finished in the top-four – the infamous 2015/16 season where they were runners up to Leicester – the required points total for the final Champions League entry position has declined in each year.

2016-17: 76 points

Arsenal missed out on a top-four finish by a single point as Liverpool got the win they needed over Middlesbrough on the final day of the season to ensure the Gunners wouldn’t be playing Champions League football for the first time since the 1996-1997 campaign.

2017-18: 75 points

Arsene Wenger’s final Premier League season as Arsenal manager was somewhat forgettable as his side finished on 63 points and way off contention for a top-four spot that was claimed by Liverpool once again.

2018-19: 71 points

The season where Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Man United did their very best to avoid finishing in the top-four, but the Gunners narrowly missed out by a single point.

2019-20: 66 points

66 points was enough to also finish third in a season that ended in July 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic that halted the campaign for over three months.

The pause didn’t help Arsenal’s cause as they finished on 56 points and in eighth place – their lowest finish since 1995.

2020-21: 67 points

A small increase to the required points total for the final Champions League entry position as a dramatic final day of the season saw Chelsea finish fourth despite losing 2-1 at Aston Villa.

Arsenal did manage to break the 60 points barrier again, but it wasn’t enough for Europa Conference League qualification let alone a top-four spot.

What it tells us?

Well, at least 67 points has been enough for a fourth-place finish in each of the last two Premier League seasons, but Arsenal’s highest points total in this period is 61.

If recent history tells us anything, 61 points is unlikely to be enough this season either, but 67 should be.

Currently on 39 points, Arsenal would need another 28 points to reach that total which, in an ideal scenario, works out to nine wins and a draw from their remaining 16 fixtures.

Although, the fact that the Gunners have twice accrued 70 points or more in the past five seasons and still haven’t ended their Champions League absence shows they may need to aim for around 76 points just to be sure.

That would require a further nine points which works out to another three wins in the perfect scenario.

With that said, whichever team can put a run of wins together and remain consistent for the rest of the season will have a great chance of winning the top-four race.


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